THE COIN STREET JOURNAL
Market News - June 3rd, 2024
$3.02 BILLION OF ETHER WITHDRAWN FROM CENTRALIZED CRYPTO EXCHANGES
Since the approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States on May 23, over $3 billion worth of Ether has been withdrawn from centralized crypto exchanges. This large exit of Ether, amounting to around 797,000 ETH or $3.02 billion, suggests a potential supply squeeze as fewer coins remain available for immediate sale.
The current level of Ether held on centralized exchanges is at a historic low, with only 10.6% of the total Ether supply still on these platforms. This data, provided by Glassnode and highlighted by analyst Leon Waidmann, indicates a significant shift towards self-custody among investors.
The approval of Ether ETFs has sparked speculation about their impact on the market. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has indicated that there is a “legit possibility” for these ETFs to start trading by late June, which could further increase demand for Ether.
Some analysts predict that the introduction of spot Ether ETFs could drive Ether prices to new all-time highs, potentially surpassing its November 2021 peak of $4,870. This prediction is based on the precedent set by Bitcoin, which experienced significant price increases following the launch of its own spot ETFs.
Ether might see even greater benefits from demand pressures compared to Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin miners, who often need to sell BTC to cover operational costs, Ethereum validators face fewer such expenses. This reduced “structural sell pressure” could contribute to a more stable and rising Ether price.
However, there are concerns about the impact of large investment trusts on Ether’s price. Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which holds $11 billion in assets, could influence the market significantly. This concern is based on the experience with Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which saw substantial outflows post-approval.
Currently, Ether is trading at $3,781, which is down 0.82% over the past 24 hours. This price is still about 23% below its all-time high, according to CoinMarketCap, highlighting the potential for significant upside if the demand driven by ETFs materializes.
The movement of Ether to self-custody reflects a broader trend of investors seeking to retain direct control over their assets, possibly in anticipation of long-term holding rather than immediate selling. This behavior reduces the available supply on exchanges, potentially driving up prices.
The approval and potential launch of Ether ETFs represent a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency market, signaling increased institutional interest and participation. This development is expected to bring more legitimacy and possibly new all-time highs for Ether.
Overall, the post-ETF approval dynamics suggest a bullish outlook for Ether, with decreased exchange supply and increased demand potentially creating a favorable environment for price appreciation in the near future.
VARIED PRICE PATTERNS AND MOVEMENTS IN THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are showing varied price patterns and potential movements in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s price is squeezed between the trendlines of a symmetrical triangle, suggesting an impending breakout. Ethereum appears poised for a pullback into a major support area, while Ripple is ending a 50-day consolidation phase.
Bitcoin’s price has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern since May 19, marked by lower highs and higher lows. This formation typically indicates a significant price move upon breaking out. If Bitcoin breaks upwards around $67,700, the target is near its all-time high of $73,777. Conversely, a downward break could see it drop to $61,734.
Ethereum’s price recently broke above a falling wedge pattern, rallying 21%. However, it faces resistance from a bearish order block extending from $3,980 to $4,093. Investors could look to buy Ethereum at key Fibonacci retracement levels, $3,424 (50%) and $3,279 (61.8%), which could push the price back to the $4,000 resistance level.
If Ethereum’s price closes below $2,864, it would invalidate the bullish thesis, potentially leading to a further drop to $2,600. This scenario underscores the importance of the $2,864 support level in determining Ethereum’s next move.
Ripple’s price is consolidating between $0.571 and $0.467 after a significant 33% fall in mid-April. This consolidation phase has lasted 49 days with decreasing volume, indicating potential for a breakout. A move above $0.571 and the 50% Fibonacci level at $0.581 could see Ripple rally to $0.621.
However, if Ripple’s daily price closes below $0.467, it could signal a further decline to the previous support at $0.419. This potential 10% drop highlights the importance of the $0.467 support level for Ripple’s price stability.
In summary, Bitcoin’s symmetrical triangle pattern suggests an imminent breakout, with a potential high of $73,777 or a low of $61,734. Ethereum is looking at a pullback to major support levels, with a bullish target of $4,000, while Ripple is ending a consolidation phase, with potential movements hinging on the $0.467 support level. Each cryptocurrency is poised for significant price action based on upcoming market moves and key support and resistance levels.
BITCOIN STARTS WEEK WITH PRICE SURGE
Bitcoin started the week strong by surpassing $69,000, with its price sitting around $69,200, marking a 2.5% increase in the past 24 hours. This price surge reflects a broader uptick in the digital asset market, which saw the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) rise by 1.4%. Dogecoin notably led these gains, increasing nearly 3%, spurred by retail investor Keith Gill’s $180 million investment in Gamestop, which saw an 80% pre-market jump. Meme stocks’ performance often correlates with meme coins, leading to significant interest in Dogecoin.
Additionally, a Solana-based Gamestop meme coin surged by over 200% within 24 hours, showcasing the high volatility and speculative interest in meme-related digital assets. This spike is documented by CoinMarketCap, indicating a strong correlation between meme stocks and meme coins. Such movements are noteworthy for traders and investors looking to capitalize on market trends driven by social media and retail investor enthusiasm.
In other significant news, Australia’s first bitcoin ETF, managed by Monochrome Asset Management, is set to begin trading on the Cboe Australia exchange. This ETF, named IBTC, will be unique as it holds bitcoin directly, a first in the country. Prior to this, Australian investors could only invest in ETFs that provided indirect exposure to bitcoin or via offshore products. Monochrome emphasizes that IBTC benefits from local investor protection rules under the directly held crypto asset licensing regime.
The launch of IBTC represents a milestone for Australian investors seeking direct exposure to bitcoin within a regulated framework. This development is expected to attract significant interest from institutional and retail investors looking for safer ways to invest in cryptocurrencies. The presence of such regulated products might also boost confidence in the crypto market overall.
On the political front, the crypto industry has amassed approximately $161 million, with Coinbase recently contributing $25 million to its political action committees ahead of the U.S. presidential election. This significant funding positions the industry’s Fairshake PAC as a formidable entity in campaign finance. The PAC is actively seeking candidates with favorable views on crypto to support in the upcoming elections.
Regulatory challenges in the U.S. remain a major barrier to broader acceptance of crypto, making these political contributions crucial for the industry’s future. There are signs that U.S. lawmakers are becoming more open to crypto, potentially leading to new legislation that provides clearer guidelines for digital assets. Such legislative progress could pave the way for increased mainstream investment in the crypto market.
The industry’s political engagement underscores the strategic importance of shaping favorable regulatory environments. By supporting pro-crypto candidates, the industry aims to influence the creation of laws that are conducive to its growth and mainstream adoption. This strategy highlights the intertwined nature of politics and emerging financial technologies in shaping the future of finance.
Overall, the combination of significant price movements in major cryptocurrencies, the introduction of new financial products like the IBTC in Australia, and substantial political contributions in the U.S.
underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of the crypto industry. These developments collectively signal increasing institutional interest, regulatory engagement, and mainstream acceptance of digital assets.
As the market responds to these changes, investors and stakeholders in the crypto space remain keenly observant of both price trends and regulatory shifts. The potential for new legislative frameworks could significantly alter the landscape, making it imperative for those involved to stay informed and proactive in their strategies.
BIDEN'S VETO OF LEGISLATION OVERTURNING SAB 121 CAUSING BACKLASH WITHIN THE CRYPTO COMMUNITY
President Joe Biden’s recent veto of the legislation to overturn the SEC’s SAB 121 has caused significant backlash within the crypto community, potentially jeopardizing his chances in the 2024 election. SAB 121, an accounting guidance from the SEC, imposes stringent requirements on financial institutions holding digital assets, making large-scale crypto custody services impractical. This move, perceived as anti-crypto, has fueled widespread discontent among crypto advocates.
In defense of his decision, Biden stated his administration’s intention to work with Congress on balanced crypto regulations while maintaining the SEC’s accounting authority. Despite this, prominent figures in the crypto industry, such as Anthony Scaramucci of Skybridge Capital, criticized the veto, warning of its political repercussions. Scaramucci emphasized that Biden’s position might have unforeseen negative consequences for his political future.
Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital expressed disappointment over the veto, suggesting it undermined the Democrats’ efforts to counter Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance. Novogratz criticized Biden’s advisors and underscored the missed opportunity to gain favor within the crypto community. Similarly, Perianne Boring of the Chamber of Digital Commerce vowed to continue the fight against the SEC’s regulations and mobilize voters to oppose anti-crypto politicians in the upcoming election.
Ryan Sean Adams of Bankless also highlighted the potential electoral impact, noting that Biden vetoed a significant pro-crypto bill that could have garnered support from both the crypto community and banks. Adams predicted that this decision would harm Democrats in the general election, underscoring the widespread dissatisfaction with SAB 121.
The U.S. crypto community, comprising an estimated 50 million eligible voters, now appears to be rallying against Biden and the Democratic Party. With influential figures like Elizabeth Warren also criticizing the crypto industry, and Donald Trump positioning himself as a pro-crypto candidate, the veto could be a pivotal issue in the 2024 election.
Crypto enthusiasts like Eric.eth argue that the approval of the ETH ETF was a forced move by the SEC, and Biden’s veto signifies a stronger anti-crypto stance from the Democrats. This sentiment is reflected across the crypto community, which feels increasingly alienated by the current administration’s regulatory approach.
The growing discontent among crypto advocates suggests a potential shift in voter sentiment, with many now looking towards candidates who support digital assets. Biden’s veto might be seen as a final straw, solidifying the perception that the Democratic Party is not willing to cooperate with the crypto industry.
As the 2024 election approaches, the crypto community’s influence could play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape. The reaction to Biden’s veto indicates a significant mobilization effort, with many crypto supporters planning to vote against anti-crypto politicians.
Overall, Biden’s decision to veto the legislation overturning SAB 121 has not only sparked a political backlash but has also highlighted the growing importance of the crypto community in U.S. politics. This development underscores the need for more nuanced and inclusive regulatory approaches to address the concerns of digital asset advocates.